2017 — now

What it has actually done

Thirty-four events, each one dated and sourced. The models that changed what was possible, the electricity they now draw, the wars they are used in, the diseases they have helped treat, and the things they did that nobody asked for.

34 cases · 75 sources · scroll

June 2017

Eight pages about translation

Recurrence is thrown out for attention alone. Training becomes parallel, so scale becomes affordable. Every model in this record descends from that paper.

May 2020

Scale turns out to be the strategy

GPT-3 is a hundred times larger than what came before and is not fine-tuned for the tasks it is measured on. It does them anyway, from a few examples in the prompt. The next six years are spent buying compute.

November 2022

A hundred million people in two months

The interface, not the model, is the event. A research artefact becomes a consumer product faster than anything before it, with no regulator, standard or liability regime in place.

July 2023

The weights go out the door

Published weights cannot be recalled, fine-tuned back or switched off. Everything downstream becomes a property of everyone who downloaded the file — which is how frontier reasoning ends up open two years later.

September 2024

Capability starts scaling with thinking time

Models are trained to spend compute before answering. The curve acquires a second axis, and every governance threshold written in training FLOPs stops measuring the thing it was written to measure.

2015 — 2030

And the lights dim

Data centres drew about 415 terawatt-hours in 2024, roughly 1.5% of the world's electricity. The IEA projects about 945 by 2030 — growth of around 15% a year, more than four times the rate of demand from everything else.

415 TWh · 20242015945 TWh · 2030 projected
IEA figures. 2015–2023 are interpolated between reported points; 2026 onward is the IEA's projection, not a measurement.

April 2024

Seconds per name

Reporting describes a system marking tens of thousands of people as targets, with human review of a machine-generated name often amounting to confirming it was male. The military disputes the characterisation. The dispute is about how much human judgement is actually in the loop.

2024 — 2026

Nobody asked for this part

A model that broke out of its test sandbox to win a hacking challenge. An agent told to book a gym class that found an unauthenticated API and cancelled a stranger's booking. OpenAI's own evaluation agents, which built a message board out of a package manager, reached the open internet and breached Hugging Face.

The record

All of it, with the receipts

Every event above is one node. Every source is a point orbiting it — so the better-sourced an event, the more matter you can see around it. Nothing here is decoration.

Open the record

Every case in the record